{"id":1557,"date":"2026-03-27T08:42:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T00:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wpet.org.cn\/?p=1557"},"modified":"2026-05-19T08:43:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:43:48","slug":"rand-agi%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e6%bc%94%e7%bb%83%e4%b9%8b%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%aa%81%e8%a2%ad%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%90%af%e7%a4%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wpet.org.cn\/en\/2026\/03\/27\/rand-agi%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e6%bc%94%e7%bb%83%e4%b9%8b%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%aa%81%e8%a2%ad%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%90%af%e7%a4%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"RAND | AGI\u7cfb\u5217\u6f14\u7ec3\u4e4b\u7f51\u7edc\u7a81\u88ad\u60c5\u666f\u542f\u793a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><br>\u7f16\u8005\u6309<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u7a7a\u95f4\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u5f62\u6001\u6b63\u5411\u667a\u80fd\u5316\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u8fdb\u30022026\u5e743\u67089\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9876\u7ea7\u9632\u52a1\u667a\u5e93\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684AGI\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08The RAND Center for the Geopolitics of AGI\uff09\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u65e0\u9650\u6f5c\u529b\uff1a\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u7a81\u88ad\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u542f\u793a\u300b\uff08Infinite Potential\u2014Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario\uff09\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\u5185\u90e8\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u8be5\u63a8\u6f14\u7cfb\u5170\u5fb7\u201cDay After\u201d\u7cfb\u5217\u6f14\u4e60\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u524d\u6cbf\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6765\u6e90\uff1aRAND Corporation (2026), Infinite Potential\u2014Insights from the Cyber Surprise Scenario: Post-Series Scenario Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence Exercises, Research Reports, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7249\/RRA4626-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>01<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5170\u5fb7\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5229\u7528\u5170\u5fb7\u7684\u201c\u65e0\u9650\u6f5c\u529b\u201d\u5e73\u53f0\u5f00\u5c55\u201cDay After\u201d\u7cfb\u5217\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u6f14\u4e60\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5176\u9700\u5728\u4e00\u540d\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u626e\u6f14\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u8be5\u60c5\u666f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u5176\u5e55\u50da\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u63a8\u8350\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u8def\u5f84\u3002<strong>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e0e\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u7a81\u88ad\u201d\u60c5\u666f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/strong>\u63a8\u6f14\u60c5\u5883\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u4e2d\u56fd\u7a81\u7136\u90e8\u7f72\u4e00\u6b3e\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u7075\u732b\u201d\uff08LING MAO\uff09\u7684\u5148\u8fdb\u7f51\u7edc\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u5341\u5206\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u4ee3\u7801\u751f\u6210\u4e0e\u6f0f\u6d1e\u4fee\u590d\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u4e0e\u519b\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7f51\u7edc\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6e17\u900f\u6e20\u9053\u77ac\u95f4\u5931\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u5927\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u535a\u5f08\u65f6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7126\u8651\u4e0e\u96f6\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u51b3\u7b56\u5708\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u6280\u672f\u7a81\u7834\u62b1\u6709\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u6050\u614c\u3002\u5f53\u4e2d\u56fd\u5229\u7528AI\u5de9\u56fa\u81ea\u8eab\u7f51\u7edc\u5b89\u5168\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u666e\u904d\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8981\u4e48\u4f7f\u7528\u3001\u8981\u4e48\u5931\u53bb\u201d\uff08use-it-or-lose-it\uff09\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5371\u673a\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u91c7\u53d6\u5305\u62ec\u7a83\u53d6\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u7269\u7406\u7834\u574f\u5728\u5185\u7684\u201c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5347\u7ea7\u6027\u201d\uff08highly escalatory\uff09\u6fc0\u8fdb\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u5176\u5355\u5411\u7f51\u7edc\u9738\u6743\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c<strong>\u7f51\u7edc\u5f52\u56e0\u56f0\u5883\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u65b9\u5b9e\u65bd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u80c1\u8feb\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u906d\u9047\u6765\u6e90\u4e0d\u660e\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7f51\u7edc\u653b\u51fb\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u6709\u7f6a\u63a8\u5b9a\u201d\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u501f\u673a\u6574\u5408\u76df\u53cb\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u538b\u8feb\u8054\u76df\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u52fe\u52d2\u4e86<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u5728AGI\u7f51\u7edc\u6218\u4e2d\u6240\u9700\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u516d\u5927\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4e03\u9879\u6838\u5fc3\u80fd\u529b\u4e0e\u4e94\u5927\u884c\u52a8\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5212\u4ece\u6218\u7565\u7814\u5224\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6297\u538b\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5df2\u8d85\u8d8a\u5355\u4e00\u6280\u672f\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u6db5\u76d6\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u97e7\u6027\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u89c4\u5219\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6743\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"942\" height=\"870\" data-attachment-id=\"1558\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wpet.org.cn\/en\/2026\/03\/27\/rand-agi%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e6%bc%94%e7%bb%83%e4%b9%8b%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%aa%81%e8%a2%ad%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%90%af%e7%a4%ba\/image-109\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?fit=942%2C870&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"942,870\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?fit=942%2C870&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?resize=942%2C870&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?w=942&amp;ssl=1 942w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?resize=300%2C277&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?resize=768%2C709&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wpet.org.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-17.png?resize=13%2C12&amp;ssl=1 13w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>02<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u60c5\u5883\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u201c\u65e0\u9650\u6f5c\u529b\u201d\u6f14\u4e60\u5e73\u53f0\u901a\u8fc7\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6781\u7aef\u4e14\u9ad8\u538b\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8de8\u90e8\u95e8\u4eba\u5458\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5168\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u6218\u7565\u6289\u62e9\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u63a8\u6f14\u5206\u4e24\u4e2a\u56de\u5408\u9012\u8fdb\uff0c\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u7a81\u53d8\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u529b\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u56de\u5408\u4e2d\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a2025\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\uff08IC\uff09\u622a\u83b7\u60c5\u62a5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u90e8\u7f72\u4e86\u4ee3\u53f7\u4e3a\u201c\u7075\u732b\u201d\uff08LING MAO\uff09\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u5907\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9ad8\u9891\u6267\u884c\u4ee3\u7801\u5206\u6790\u3001\u751f\u6210\u53ca\u6f0f\u6d1e\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u6218\u7565\u540e\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5173\u952e\u7f51\u7edc\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u4e0e\u6f0f\u6d1e\u88ab\u4ee5\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4fee\u590d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u534e\u7f51\u7edc\u63a2\u6d4b\u901a\u9053\u5168\u9762\u201c\u81f4\u76f2\u201d\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u56de\u5408\u5c06\u5371\u673a\u63a8\u5411\u5b9e\u6218\u5316\u8fb9\u7f18\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u56de\u5408\u7ed3\u675f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u7535\u4fe1\u4e1a\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7f51\u7edc\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u5c0f\u5fae\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ca\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u52d2\u7d22\u8f6f\u4ef6\u653b\u51fb\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6f14\u4e60\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u5170\u5fb7\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u5398\u6e05\u4e2d\u56fdAI\u6280\u672f\u8fb9\u754c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u9632\u5fa1\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u4e0b\u8868\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6240\u5217\u7684\u516d\u5927\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u52fe\u52d2\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u5185\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u7d27\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u4e03\u9879\u6838\u5fc3\u6218\u7565\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u519b\u65b9\u548c\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u786c\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u653f\u4f01\u534f\u540c\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u8054\u76df\u6784\u5efa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure 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