{"id":1613,"date":"2026-04-19T18:51:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T10:51:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wpet.org.cn\/?p=1613"},"modified":"2026-06-08T18:53:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T10:53:36","slug":"rand-%e5%bb%ba%e6%9e%84%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e9%9f%a7%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wpet.org.cn\/en\/2026\/04\/19\/rand-%e5%bb%ba%e6%9e%84%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e9%9f%a7%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"RAND | \u5efa\u6784\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u5927\u6218\u7565"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><br>\u7f16\u8005\u6309<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u8ba8\u8bba\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5206\u5316\u6001\u52bf\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u5ea6\u53ca\u76d1\u7ba1\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7b49\u8bae\u9898\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u6839\u672c\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u4e4b\u5916\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5373AI\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u5c06\u5f15\u53d1\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u4e8e2026\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u300a\u5efa\u6784\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u5927\u6218\u7565\u300b\uff08Toward a Grand Strategy for AI Resilience\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u201c\u6280\u672f\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u6240\u4e3b\u5f20\u7684\u201c\u653e\u4efb\u81ea\u6d41\u201d\uff08Do-nothing\uff09\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u201c\u4ea1\u7f8a\u8865\u7262\u201d\uff08Wait-and-see\uff09\u5f0f\u7684\u88ab\u52a8\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5747\u672a\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u589e\u5f3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u673a\u6784\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u62b5\u5fa1\u6280\u672f\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u5728\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u5851\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u9a7e\u9a6d\u6280\u672f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u673a\u6784\u6216\u7cfb\u7edf\u627f\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\u5e76\u4ece\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e94\u6210\u4e3aAI\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u62a5\u544a\u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asad Ramzanali &amp; Ganesh Sitaraman. (2026). Toward a grand strategy for AI resilience. RAND.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/perspectives\/PEA4525-1.html\">https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/perspectives\/PEA4525-1.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8bba\u65ad\u4e3a\uff1a<strong>\u9762\u5bf9AI\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5e94\u91c7\u53d6\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u6784\u5efa\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u91c7\u53d6\u201c\u653e\u4efb\u81ea\u6d41\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4ea1\u7f8a\u8865\u7262\u201d\u5f0f\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/strong>\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u653e\u4efb\u81ea\u6d41\u201d\u7b56\u7565\u672a\u80fd\u8003\u8651AI\u5e94\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u6270\u52a8\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u8d8b\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u5373\u9075\u5faa\u6b64\u8def\u5f84\uff1b\u201c\u4ea1\u7f8a\u8865\u7262\u201d\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5371\u5bb3\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u4ecb\u5165\u524d\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u5173\u952e\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u906d\u88ad\u53ca\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u5fc3\u7406\u5065\u5eb7\u6076\u5316\u7b49\uff0c\u4e8b\u540e\u8865\u6551\u96be\u4ee5\u4fee\u590d\u5df2\u9020\u6210\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e14\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6027\u65b9\u6848\u5e76\u4e0d\u521b\u9020\u97e7\u6027\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u800c\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u9884\u5148\u5d4c\u5165\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4e2a\u4f53\u3001\u673a\u6784\u4e0e\u793e\u533a\u5177\u5907<strong>\u97e7\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u97e7\u6027\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u65e2\u53ef\u4e3a\u9884\u5148\u89c4\u5212\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\u4e0e\u6d41\u7a0b\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6027\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4e3a\u6d89\u53ca\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6216\u7ed3\u6784\u672c\u8eab\u6784\u5efa\u6216\u91cd\u7ec4\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u673a\u5236\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4ece\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e09\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u501f\u9274\u97e7\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u793e\u533a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e09\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u9884\u5148\u589e\u5f3a\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6297\u538b\u4e0e\u6062\u590d\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u7b80\u5355\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u7ecf\u5178\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u7b49\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u906d\u53d7\u7f51\u7edc\u653b\u51fb\u51fa\u73b0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5207\u65ad\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u539f\u6709\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u884c\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4f1a\u7acb\u5373\u5f52\u96f6\uff0c\u4e14\u635f\u5931\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\uff1b\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0cAI\u6269\u6563\u98ce\u9669\u521d\u671f\u6781\u4f4e\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u4fee\u6b63\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u867d\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u4f46\u4ecd\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u5f62\u6210\u65ad\u7f51\u6210\u672c\u3001\u529f\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u6210\u672c\u3001\u707e\u96be\u6210\u672c\u4e09\u79cd\u524a\u5f31\u65ad\u7f51\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u65ad\u7f51\u6210\u672c\u4f53\u73b0\u4e3a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u635f\u5931\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u529f\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u6210\u672c\u4f7f\u8fd0\u8425\u65b9\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u8fb9\u574f\u8fb9\u8d5a\u201d\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u707e\u96be\u6210\u672c\u56e0\u793e\u4f1a\u635f\u5931\u5c5e\u5916\u90e8\u6210\u672c\u800c\u672a\u88ab\u8fd0\u8425\u65b9\u5185\u5316\u3002\u7531\u6b64\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u79cd\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5c06\u793e\u4f1a\u635f\u5931\u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8ba1\u5165\u8fd0\u8425\u65b9\u8d23\u4efb\u4ee5\u6269\u5927\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u627f\u62c5\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7acb\u6cd5\u5bf9\u9884\u9632\u6027\u65ad\u7f51\u7ed9\u4e88\u6536\u5165\u8865\u507f\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u635f\u5931\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u7ed3\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<strong>\u65ad\u7f51\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u534f\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u4ece\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u501f\u9274\u97e7\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u793e\u533a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e09\u4e2a\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